Matchday LabPerformance
How often our picks hit, with number of picks, period and the hit rate our model expected. Every result is published, including the misses.
Top 10 of the day
The ten picks of the day from our shortlist, ranked by our own score.
Hit rate73.0%
Expected62.9%
Difference+10.0 pppercentage points
Picks74Total since 25 Oct 2026
Hits54
Trend
Hit rateExpected
Hit rate over all picks up to each day (solid) and expected hit rate (dashed). From 20 picks on.
| Period | Picks | Hits | Hit rate | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 10 | 9 | 90.0% | 64.8% |
My Bets
Home or away win picks that meet our criteria.
Hit rate68.1%
Expected63.2%
Difference+5.0 pppercentage points
Picks1,560Total since 28 Aug 2026
Hits1,063
Trend
Hit rateExpected
Hit rate over all picks up to each day (solid) and expected hit rate (dashed). From 100 picks on.
| Period | Picks | Hits | Hit rate | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 days | 1,000 | 672 | 67.2% | 62.9% |
| Yesterday | 84 | 59 | 70.2% | 63.2% |
Bet Builder
The 20 picks of the day with the highest hit chance, taken from the Bet Builder cards.
Hit rate69.7%
Expected63.4%
Difference+6.3 pppercentage points
Picks568Total since 19 Sep 2026
Hits396
Trend
Hit rateExpected
Hit rate over all picks up to each day (solid) and expected hit rate (dashed). From 100 picks on.
| Period | Picks | Hits | Hit rate | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 days | 474 | 326 | 68.8% | 63.5% |
| Yesterday | 20 | 16 | 80.0% | 65.9% |
Odds Alert
Top teams at raised odds against sides from the bottom of the table.
Hit rate44.5%
Expected41.5%
Difference+3.0 pppercentage points
Picks211Total since 23 Sep 2026
Hits94
Trend
Hit rateExpected
Hit rate over all picks up to each day (solid) and expected hit rate (dashed). From 50 picks on.
| Period | Picks | Hits | Hit rate | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 days | 201 | 90 | 44.8% | 41.3% |
| Yesterday | 14 | 7 | 50.0% | 43.1% |
The hit rate says nothing about profit or loss. We show no odds and no profit and promise no winnings.
How we count
- Recorded before kick-offEvery pick is recorded before kick-off. An evaluated pick is never changed or deleted.
- Settled after 90 minutesThe score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time is used. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs do not count. Only finished matches are counted.
- Postponed or cancelledA postponed match counts once, with its new date. A match that is not played does not count.
- One pick per matchFor Bet Builder the 20 picks of the day with the highest hit chance count, only the main pick of each match. All other cards of the day do not count here. My Bets has one pick per match anyway.
- When the categories startedWe count from the first day of each category: Top 10 on 25 Oct 2026, My Bets on 28 Aug 2026, Bet Builder on 19 Sep 2026, Odds Alert on 23 Sep 2026.
- Ongoing calibrationWe recalibrate our categories regularly, always with the aim of getting better. As soon as a new calibration goes live, we announce it publicly and a new evaluation period begins.
- What “expected” meansThe expected hit rate is the average of the chance our model (blended with the market's assessment) gave the pick before the match. It is our expectation. The hit rate shows whether it came true.
- Few picksThe number of picks is shown with every percentage. A single day with 20 to 40 picks swings by about ten percentage points. Over a longer time the gap to the expectation also swings: by about ten percentage points at 100 picks and about four at 500 picks. The big number and the trend therefore only appear from 20 picks on.
- Nothing about profitThe hit rate says nothing about profit or loss. We show no odds and no profit and promise no winnings. Statistics, not betting advice.
- Top 10 of the dayThe ten picks of the ranking frozen in the morning. For combined picks, the pick hits when all parts hit.
- Odds AlertEvery alert counts once per match. It hits when the favourite wins.
All days
Open by month and week. Per day: picks, hits and hit rate.
November 2026Top 10 of the day: 9 of 10 (90.0%) · My Bets: 59 of 84 (70.2%) · Bet Builder: 16 of 20 (80.0%) · Odds Alert: 7 of 14 (50.0%)
Week 44 · 26 Oct – 1 NovTop 10 of the day: 9 of 10 (90.0%) · My Bets: 59 of 84 (70.2%) · Bet Builder: 16 of 20 (80.0%) · Odds Alert: 7 of 14 (50.0%)
| Day | Top 10 of the day | My Bets | Bet Builder | Odds Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov 2026 | 9 of 10 (90.0%) | 59 of 84 (70.2%) | 16 of 20 (80.0%) | 7 of 14 (50.0%) |
October 2026Top 10 of the day: 45 of 64 (70.3%) · My Bets: 617 of 921 (67.0%) · Bet Builder: 316 of 461 (68.5%) · Odds Alert: 84 of 189 (44.4%)
Week 44 · 26 Oct – 1 NovTop 10 of the day: 37 of 54 (68.5%) · My Bets: 131 of 188 (69.7%) · Bet Builder: 62 of 91 (68.1%) · Odds Alert: 19 of 37 (51.4%)
| Day | Top 10 of the day | My Bets | Bet Builder | Odds Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | 6 of 9 (66.7%) | 59 of 89 (66.3%) | 12 of 20 (60.0%) | 8 of 20 (40.0%) |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 7 of 10 (70.0%) | 26 of 37 (70.3%) | 9 of 17 (52.9%) | 3 of 6 (50.0%) |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 7 of 8 (87.5%) | 13 of 18 (72.2%) | 13 of 17 (76.5%) | 0 of 1 (0.0%) |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 6 of 10 (60.0%) | 13 of 18 (72.2%) | 9 of 13 (69.2%) | 2 of 2 (100.0%) |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 6 of 10 (60.0%) | 11 of 14 (78.6%) | 12 of 15 (80.0%) | 4 of 5 (80.0%) |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 5 of 7 (71.4%) | 9 of 12 (75.0%) | 7 of 9 (77.8%) | 2 of 3 (66.7%) |
Week 43 · 19 Oct – 25 OctTop 10 of the day: 8 of 10 (80.0%) · My Bets: 201 of 311 (64.6%) · Bet Builder: 91 of 132 (68.9%) · Odds Alert: 20 of 61 (32.8%)
| Day | Top 10 of the day | My Bets | Bet Builder | Odds Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | 8 of 10 (80.0%) | 69 of 102 (67.6%) | 14 of 20 (70.0%) | 6 of 13 (46.2%) |
| 24 Oct 2026 | – | 61 of 98 (62.2%) | 16 of 22 (72.7%) | 10 of 26 (38.5%) |
| 23 Oct 2026 | – | 23 of 36 (63.9%) | 13 of 17 (76.5%) | 1 of 5 (20.0%) |
| 22 Oct 2026 | – | 18 of 29 (62.1%) | 13 of 22 (59.1%) | 1 of 3 (33.3%) |
| 21 Oct 2026 | – | 8 of 12 (66.7%) | 10 of 15 (66.7%) | 0 of 4 (0.0%) |
| 20 Oct 2026 | – | 12 of 17 (70.6%) | 13 of 16 (81.2%) | 2 of 6 (33.3%) |
| 19 Oct 2026 | – | 10 of 17 (58.8%) | 12 of 20 (60.0%) | 0 of 4 (0.0%) |
Week 42 · 12 Oct – 18 OctMy Bets: 143 of 205 (69.8%) · Bet Builder: 81 of 120 (67.5%) · Odds Alert: 26 of 49 (53.1%)
| Day | Top 10 of the day | My Bets | Bet Builder | Odds Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | – | 48 of 76 (63.2%) | 12 of 22 (54.5%) | 8 of 13 (61.5%) |
| 17 Oct 2026 | – | 41 of 65 (63.1%) | 14 of 26 (53.8%) | 9 of 15 (60.0%) |
| 16 Oct 2026 | – | 8 of 11 (72.7%) | 8 of 10 (80.0%) | 3 of 5 (60.0%) |
| 15 Oct 2026 | – | 19 of 20 (95.0%) | 21 of 23 (91.3%) | 0 of 4 (0.0%) |
| 14 Oct 2026 | – | 7 of 8 (87.5%) | 8 of 11 (72.7%) | 2 of 2 (100.0%) |
| 13 Oct 2026 | – | 8 of 11 (72.7%) | 11 of 16 (68.8%) | 2 of 5 (40.0%) |
| 12 Oct 2026 | – | 12 of 14 (85.7%) | 7 of 12 (58.3%) | 2 of 5 (40.0%) |
Week 41 · 5 Oct – 11 OctMy Bets: 117 of 174 (67.2%) · Bet Builder: 57 of 76 (75.0%) · Odds Alert: 15 of 33 (45.5%)
| Day | Top 10 of the day | My Bets | Bet Builder | Odds Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | – | 51 of 69 (73.9%) | 20 of 22 (90.9%) | 4 of 11 (36.4%) |
| 10 Oct 2026 | – | 42 of 67 (62.7%) | 12 of 19 (63.2%) | 4 of 11 (36.4%) |
| 09 Oct 2026 | – | 20 of 28 (71.4%) | 16 of 20 (80.0%) | 4 of 6 (66.7%) |
| 08 Oct 2026 | – | 1 of 6 (16.7%) | 4 of 8 (50.0%) | 1 of 2 (50.0%) |
| 07 Oct 2026 | – | 1 of 2 (50.0%) | 3 of 4 (75.0%) | 1 of 1 (100.0%) |
| 06 Oct 2026 | – | 1 of 1 (100.0%) | 1 of 1 (100.0%) | 0 of 1 (0.0%) |
| 05 Oct 2026 | – | 1 of 1 (100.0%) | 1 of 2 (50.0%) | 1 of 1 (100.0%) |
Week 40 · 28 Sep – 4 OctMy Bets: 25 of 43 (58.1%) · Bet Builder: 25 of 42 (59.5%) · Odds Alert: 4 of 9 (44.4%)
| Day | Top 10 of the day | My Bets | Bet Builder | Odds Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Oct 2026 | – | 11 of 20 (55.0%) | 8 of 17 (47.1%) | – |
| 03 Oct 2026 | – | 10 of 18 (55.6%) | 11 of 18 (61.1%) | 3 of 7 (42.9%) |
| 02 Oct 2026 | – | 2 of 3 (66.7%) | 2 of 3 (66.7%) | 0 of 1 (0.0%) |
| 01 Oct 2026 | – | 2 of 2 (100.0%) | 4 of 4 (100.0%) | 1 of 1 (100.0%) |
September 2026My Bets: 348 of 507 (68.6%) · Bet Builder: 64 of 87 (73.6%) · Odds Alert: 3 of 8 (37.5%)
Week 40 · 28 Sep – 4 OctMy Bets: 3 of 4 (75.0%) · Bet Builder: 3 of 4 (75.0%) · Odds Alert: 1 of 1 (100.0%)
| Day | Top 10 of the day | My Bets | Bet Builder | Odds Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | – | 3 of 4 (75.0%) | 2 of 3 (66.7%) | – |
| 29 Sep 2026 | – | – | 1 of 1 (100.0%) | 1 of 1 (100.0%) |
Week 39 · 21 Sep – 27 SepMy Bets: 24 of 34 (70.6%) · Bet Builder: 31 of 43 (72.1%) · Odds Alert: 2 of 7 (28.6%)
| Day | Top 10 of the day | My Bets | Bet Builder | Odds Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2026 | – | 8 of 13 (61.5%) | 12 of 16 (75.0%) | 1 of 2 (50.0%) |
| 26 Sep 2026 | – | 9 of 12 (75.0%) | 13 of 17 (76.5%) | 1 of 3 (33.3%) |
| 25 Sep 2026 | – | – | 1 of 1 (100.0%) | 0 of 1 (0.0%) |
| 24 Sep 2026 | – | 1 of 1 (100.0%) | 0 of 1 (0.0%) | – |
| 23 Sep 2026 | – | 4 of 6 (66.7%) | 4 of 7 (57.1%) | 0 of 1 (0.0%) |
| 22 Sep 2026 | – | 1 of 1 (100.0%) | – | – |
| 21 Sep 2026 | – | 1 of 1 (100.0%) | 1 of 1 (100.0%) | – |
Week 38 · 14 Sep – 20 SepMy Bets: 122 of 170 (71.8%) · Bet Builder: 30 of 40 (75.0%)
| Day | Top 10 of the day | My Bets | Bet Builder | Odds Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | – | 13 of 19 (68.4%) | 14 of 20 (70.0%) | – |
| 19 Sep 2026 | – | 35 of 62 (56.5%) | 16 of 20 (80.0%) | – |
| 18 Sep 2026 | – | 22 of 25 (88.0%) | – | – |
| 17 Sep 2026 | – | 10 of 14 (71.4%) | – | – |
| 16 Sep 2026 | – | 17 of 17 (100.0%) | – | – |
| 15 Sep 2026 | – | 10 of 14 (71.4%) | – | – |
| 14 Sep 2026 | – | 15 of 19 (78.9%) | – | – |
Week 37 · 7 Sep – 13 SepMy Bets: 104 of 165 (63.0%)
| Day | Top 10 of the day | My Bets | Bet Builder | Odds Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep 2026 | – | 39 of 70 (55.7%) | – | – |
| 12 Sep 2026 | – | 27 of 43 (62.8%) | – | – |
| 11 Sep 2026 | – | 15 of 19 (78.9%) | – | – |
| 10 Sep 2026 | – | 4 of 7 (57.1%) | – | – |
| 09 Sep 2026 | – | 12 of 13 (92.3%) | – | – |
| 08 Sep 2026 | – | 3 of 4 (75.0%) | – | – |
| 07 Sep 2026 | – | 4 of 9 (44.4%) | – | – |
Week 36 · 31 Aug – 6 SepMy Bets: 95 of 134 (70.9%)
| Day | Top 10 of the day | My Bets | Bet Builder | Odds Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Sep 2026 | – | 35 of 47 (74.5%) | – | – |
| 05 Sep 2026 | – | 29 of 45 (64.4%) | – | – |
| 04 Sep 2026 | – | 15 of 20 (75.0%) | – | – |
| 03 Sep 2026 | – | 6 of 7 (85.7%) | – | – |
| 02 Sep 2026 | – | 5 of 6 (83.3%) | – | – |
| 01 Sep 2026 | – | 5 of 9 (55.6%) | – | – |
August 2026My Bets: 39 of 48 (81.2%)
Week 36 · 31 Aug – 6 SepMy Bets: 17 of 19 (89.5%)
| Day | Top 10 of the day | My Bets | Bet Builder | Odds Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2026 | – | 17 of 19 (89.5%) | – | – |
Week 35 · 24 Aug – 30 AugMy Bets: 22 of 29 (75.9%)
| Day | Top 10 of the day | My Bets | Bet Builder | Odds Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2026 | – | 15 of 20 (75.0%) | – | – |
| 29 Aug 2026 | – | 2 of 3 (66.7%) | – | – |
| 28 Aug 2026 | – | 5 of 6 (83.3%) | – | – |
Updated: 02 Nov 2026 11:40 · 18+ · Statistics, not betting advice